The Next UKIP Defectors – Based on Parliamentary Voting Records


Saturday, October 11th, 2014. 2:57am

House of Commons Chamber

House of Commons. Image via UK Parliament on Flickr [licence]


There are four Conservative MPs who have voted more strongly against the European Union than Douglas Carswell. Carswell recently “stood down” as a Conservative MP and was re-elected as a United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) MP in the resultant by-election.

Mark Reckless who also “resigned” as a Conservative MP to contest a by-election as a UKIP candidate had the 11th most anti-EU voting record among Conservative MPs. In other words there are a nine sitting Conservative MPs who have voted more strongly against the European Union than Mark Reckless.

There is currently speculation about which MPs might be next to switch their allegiance to UKIP. If an MP has voted against the European Union in Parliament that might be an indication they could consider membership of UKIP an attractive option.

The table below shows the Conservative, and ex-Conservative, MPs who have voted most strongly against the European Union. The percentages given show the degree of agreement with the “European Union – for” policy on PublicWhip.org.uk.

Philip Hollobone Con 8.1%
Philip Davies Con 11.3%
Peter Bone Con 15.9%
William Cash Con 19.3%
Douglas Carswell UKIP 19.3%
Peter Tapsell Con 20.0%
Julian Lewis Con 21.5%
Stewart Jackson Con 21.6%
David Nuttall Con 21.9%
Brian Binley Con 22.3%
Mark Reckless UKIP 22.5%
Richard Shepherd Con 23.9%
John Whittingdale Con 24.2%
John Redwood Con 25.6%
Christopher Chope Con 25.7%
Bernard Jenkin Con 25.7%
Andrew Turner Con 26.0%
Anne Main Con 26.5%
Laurence Robertson Con 26.9%
Gerald Howarth Con 27.6%
William Hague Con 28.0%
Charles Walker Con 28.3%
John Baron Con 28.5%
Edward Leigh Con 29.6%
Roger Gale Con 30.7%
Zac Goldsmith Con 31.1%
James Clappison Con 31.1%
Richard Drax Con 31.1%
David Davis Con 31.4%
Jacob Rees-Mogg Con 32.1%

Clicking on the percentages links to the details of each MP’s voting record on the EU on PublicWhip and it is possible to drill down from there to see how an MP voted in each relevant individual vote.

The following Labour MPs are those whose votes have been least supportive of the European Union:

Ian Davidson Lab 30.5%
Kate Hoey Lab 36.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Lab 37.0%
John McDonnell Lab 42.0%
Austin Mitchell Lab 43.9%
Graham Stringer Lab 44.4%
Frank Field Lab 46.1%
John Cryer Lab 49.0%
Jeremy Corbyn Lab 50.0%
Roger Godsiff Lab 50.7%
Dennis Skinner Lab 51.4%
Gordon Brown Lab 52.8%
Glenda Jackson Lab 53.7%
Ian Lavery Lab 54.2%

Recently elected Labour MP Mike Kane has been excluded as he has not yet had the opportunity to participate in many votes on the European Union.

House of Lords

Based on their voting records independents Janric Craig (who legislates under the pseudonym Viscount Craigavon) and William Herbert Laming (Lord Laming) have shown the greatest opposition to the European Union via their voting record.

There are seven members of the House of Lords who have voted more strongly against the European Union than UKIP member Leopold Verney (who legislates as Lord Willoughby de Broke). The other UKIP member of the House of Lords Malcolm Pearson (who legislates under the name Lord Pearson of Rannoch) has only voted moderately against the European Union.

The Conservative members of the House of Lords who have voted most strongly against the EU are:

David Maclean (Lord Blencathra) Con 8.9%
Michael Hardy Spicer (Lord Spicer) Con 9.2%
Angela Browning (Baroness Browning) Con 9.4%
John Wakeham (Lord Wakeham) Con 11.4%
Jean Barker (Baroness Trumpington) Con 12.2%

Data

All the information shown above is available via PublicWhip.org.uk, specifically the page comparing individual MPs and members of the House of Lords with the policy on the European Union.

I have published a spreadsheet making it easier to work with the data.

2 comments/updates on “The Next UKIP Defectors – Based on Parliamentary Voting Records

  1. anadapter

    In that Labour list you do have the usual suspects though. I mean, would you really expect Dennis Skinner to vote with the party line 100% of the time? But it isn’t just about Europe is it? UKIP sailed away from that single issue stance many years ago now so it’s not an entirely helpful way of looking at it. We know the Tories are split on it. They been for decades and by and large they live with it now and that doesn’t mean that anyone who has uncertainty about the EU will jump ship for that one issue.

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